If you’ve seen news stories about home prices falling, you might be wondering if now’s still a good time to buy or sell in places like Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks, Agoura Hills, Newbury Park, or Simi Valley. Here’s what you need to know.

It’s true that a few metros nationwide are experiencing slight price drops—but that doesn’t tell the full story. The bigger picture? Home values almost always go up over time (see graph below):

While many remember the crash of 2008, that was the outlier—not the norm. The factors leading to that downturn (like loose lending rules, minimal equity, and an oversupply of homes) are nothing like what we’re seeing in the real estate market today in Southern California. So, the next time you see a headline about prices cooling or normalizing, don’t jump to conclusions—it’s not necessarily a sign of another crash.

What’s the Five-Year Rule?

If you're buying in Simi Valley or selling in Agoura Hills, the “five-year rule” might help put things in perspective. The idea is that if you plan to own a home for at least five years, short-term dips usually aren’t a deal-breaker.

“. . . there’s the ‘five-year rule of thumb’ in real estate—which suggests that most buyers can buffer themselves from mild short-term declines if they plan to own a property for at least that amount of time.” – Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub

That’s because home values typically rise over time—even if there’s a temporary dip, they tend to rebound and then some.

What’s Happening in Today’s Market?

In many markets—including across Ventura County and Conejo Valley—home prices are still climbing, just at a slower pace. In metros where prices are softening a bit, the average decline since April 2024 is just -2.9%. That’s nowhere near the levels seen during the 2008 downturn.

Zoom out a bit, and you’ll see those markets are still well ahead of where they were five years ago. That means homeowners who’ve been in their homes even a few years—whether in Thousand Oaks or Newbury Park—are still in a great equity position.

The Big Picture

According to the FHFA, home prices have increased by 55% over the last five years. A small short-term dip of 2% is minor in comparison. Even better? Every state in the U.S. has seen home values rise over the last five years (see map below), and our local markets in Westlake Village, Simi Valley, and beyond are part of that growth.

So, while monthly or yearly fluctuations might catch headlines, the long-term trend still favors homeowners.

Bottom Line

Yes, prices may shift in the short term. But history shows that home values almost always go up—especially if you stay for at least five years. Whether you're buying in Agoura Hills or selling in Westlake Village, it’s the long-term perspective that matters most.

When you think about where you want to be in five years, how does owning a home fit into that picture?

Let’s connect to talk about what makes the most sense for your next move in Conejo Valley.