This is a market where the transactions are not banks blowing out their supply [of foreclosures], which is very hard to predict. You have a much more normal market.
~ Jerry Nickelsburg, UCLA economics professor
UCLA: Good Housing Forecast for SoCal
Despite all the fear-mongers and housing “experts”, real-life realtors like myself have been reporting for a quite some time, that things are looking up in the housing market. Last week we got written proof from the UCLA Anderson Forecast. It’s really good news, especially for those of you who are still experiencing some trepidation because you’ve been hearing—like most potential home sellers/buyers—that there is impending fear of another housing market bubble. Perhaps this is your moment to exhale. The fear may not only be more than unfounded at least according to this recent paper released by UCLA as part of their quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast (and reported by the Los Angeles Times) but we may be simply, dare I say it, just plain old normal. According to UCLA economics professor Jerry Nickelsburg, sliding home sales volume — the number of homes sold in Southern California dropped 15.1% in May compared to last year’s numbers. The Los Angeles Times points to the data and quotes Nickelsburg, to illustrate the normalization of the market:
…according to San Diego-based DataQuick — [the data] is masking a housing market that is becoming increasingly, as he put it, ‘normal’.
The Housing Crash v. A Normal Market
In case you need more convincing, we are doing better – I am an example of a realtor who is out there daily listing homes and closing rapidly. Buying and selling homes in Southern California is once again a hot trend, I can vouch for that fact. But if you’re still feeling a bit chilly on the topic of a “hot” housing market forecast, then consider this, we are at least headed for normal. Normal in this case, is a very good goal! And, one might argue, if you buy the whole “housing crash” conversation, you have to at least consider the “normalized market” discussion especially when it comes from such notable sources. Nickesburg points out:
We have no expectation of getting back to when we had 1 million people on construction payrolls. But getting back to something like 700,000, we can do. And those are good jobs, reflective of a healthy economy.
The Sun Shines Again on SoCal’s Housing Market
According to the LA Times, while the news from UCLA is not all wonderful for the entire country’s housing crisis, in Southern California, the sun is once again shining. In the final parts of the report, UCLA predicts drops in the unemployment numbers, to a very low 6.8% by next year and even lower to 5.9% by 2016.
Further, they forecast that in West Coast cities like Los Angeles, they are likely to attract large amounts of Chinese investments since the bubble continues to deflate and investors want a sound shell for their money. Long awaited good news – we are normal. Hey we all need a little validation from time to time!
If you have questions about how Lydia Gable can help you buy or sell a home and approach the housing market with a refreshed perspective or if you are looking to buy or sell in Thousand Oaks, Westlake Village, Conejo Valley, Newbury Park, Agoura Hills, Oak Park, or Calabasas, don’t hesitate to get in touch today. Contact Lydia Gable today for an appointment or to view new listings.