Housing News: ‘Normal’ is a Good Goal!

This is a market where the transactions are not banks blowing out their supply [of foreclosures], which is very hard to predict. You have a much more normal market.

~ Jerry Nickelsburg, UCLA economics professor

UCLA: Good Housing Forecast for SoCal

Despite all the fear-mongers and housing “experts”, real-life realtors like myself have been reporting for a quite some time, that things are looking up in the housing market. Last week we got written proof from the UCLA Anderson Forecast. It’s really good news, especially for those of you who are still experiencing some trepidation because you’ve been hearing—like most potential home sellers/buyers—that there is impending fear of another housing market bubble. Perhaps this is your moment to exhale. The fear may not only be more than unfounded at least according to this recent paper released by UCLA as part of their quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast (and reported by the Los Angeles Times) but we may be simply, dare I say it, just plain old normal. According to UCLA economics professor Jerry Nickelsburg, sliding home sales volume — the number of homes sold in Southern California dropped 15.1% in May compared to last year’s numbers. The Los Angeles Times points to the data and quotes Nickelsburg, to illustrate the normalization of the market:

…according to San Diego-based DataQuick — [the data] is masking a housing market that is becoming increasingly, as he put it, ‘normal’.

The Housing Crash v. A Normal Market

In case you need more convincing, we are doing better – I am an example of a realtor who is out there daily listing homes and closing rapidly. Buying and selling homes in Southern California is once again a hot trend, I can vouch for that fact. But if you’re still feeling a bit chilly on the topic of a “hot” housing market forecast, then consider this, we are at least headed for normal. Normal in this case, is a very good goal! And, one might argue, if you buy the whole “housing crash” conversation, you have to at least consider the “normalized market” discussion especially when it comes from such notable sources. Nickesburg points out:

We have no expectation of getting back to when we had 1 million people on construction payrolls. But getting back to something like 700,000, we can do. And those are good jobs, reflective of a healthy economy.

The Sun Shines Again on SoCal’s Housing Market

According to the LA Times, while the news from UCLA is not all wonderful for the entire country’s housing crisis, in Southern California, the sun is once again shining. In the final parts of the report, UCLA predicts drops in the unemployment numbers, to a very low 6.8% by next year and even lower to 5.9% by 2016.

Further, they forecast that in West Coast cities like Los Angeles, they are likely to attract large amounts of Chinese investments since the bubble continues to deflate and investors want a sound shell for their money. Long awaited good news – we are normal. Hey we all need a little validation from time to time!

If you have questions about how Lydia Gable can help you buy or sell a home and approach the housing market with a refreshed perspective or if you are looking to buy or sell in Thousand Oaks, Westlake Village, Conejo Valley, Newbury Park, Agoura Hills, Oak Park, or Calabasas, don’t hesitate to get in touch today. Contact Lydia Gable today for an appointment or to view new listings.


First-Quarter SoCal Real Estate Market Update

While I am immersed in the busiest spring season for this realtor’s real estate career in years, I thought it pertinent to share with you a 1st quarter housing market update for Southern California. It’s good news indeed for you vigilant housing market watchers especially in the Ventura County area. Real estate numbers are on the up-tick and apparently not just for yours truly! Profit margins, new development, buying and selling— a majority of analysts report—is all on the incline. And although many naysayers feared another “housing bubble” debacle, the numbers remain consistently positive as does the future forecast.

Following are just a few analysts’ findings as they pertain to, specifically Southern California and Ventura County housing market numbers for this, the first quarter of 2014.

Positive Real Estate Market Numbers in SoCal

According to The Press Enterprise, KB Home, an LA based home builder discussed first quarter market results for 2014. KB Home President and CEO Jeffrey Mezger said in a conference call with analysts, “There is a strong indication that new home development in California will rise – and coastal communities will dominate the sales scene.” KB’s profits are at $10.6 million profit for the period ending Feb. 28. And he stressed that this is a profit margin milestone that hasn’t been achieved in the first quarter since back in 2007. Metzger went on to say:

Total revenues grew 11 percent to $405.2 million from the company’s delivery of 1,442 homes compared to 1,485 in the first quarter of 2013… California has some of the most dramatic examples of reposition strategy. We expect positive cross-over to positive unit sales in California at some point in the same year.

Thousand Oaks, Westlake Village Home Sales – HOT!

A February 2014 article in Ventura County Star said while some of Ventura County and parts of Southern California are experiencing a slump, the numbers emerging from the end of 2013 and now in this first quarter, indicate that luxury property sales are doing remarkably well. The Starsays some the best reports are coming from my “neck-of-the-woods” and I can vouch for that. The report says:

Homes selling in 2013 for at least $1 million in the county leapt nearly 43 percent to 780 sales up from 547 in 2012, according to San Diego-based DataQuick. Hot areas were the Thousand Oaks-Westlake Village area.

Additionally, at least according to the forecast for Ventura County as projected by Zillow, these numbers over the next year are likely to continue a steady incline. Says the Zillow forecast of current home values, expected home prices, and the Ventura County housing market overview, it’s all moving upwards:

Ventura County home values have gone up 15.3% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 4.9% within the next year.

Ventura County Market Overview
(Data through Feb 28, 2014)

  • $474,700 ZHVI
  • 4.9% 1-yr forecast (Feb 28, 2015)
  • $559,000 Median listing price
  • $454,000 Median sale price

Where Luxury Steps Up to Greet You

Where luxury steps up to greet you – this is the focus for Westlake Village Realty. Beautiful homes are listed for sale now in the exquisite communities of Westlake Village, Lake Sherwood, and Thousand Oaks and Agoura Hills. If you are a potential home buyer or seller, I can help you find the perfect fit for your luxury lifestyle. For questions on any topic covered on this article or to set up a consultation to view or sell fine homes in the Conejo Valley, contact Lydia Gable today.


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